Saturday, June 6, 2009

Small Ball

If you want to know how the Pittsburgh Pirates will finally change their losing ways, you'll need to sit through two history lessons. One is relatively recent, and the other takes us back to the days of "Give 'Em Hell" Harry S. Truman and Howdy Doody.

Our recent history lesson involves Nate McLouth, who was traded to the Braves for Gorkys Hernandez, Charlie Morton, and Jeff Locke this past week. McLouth, an All Star in 2008 and the current face of the franchise (having replaced the former face of the franchise, Jason Bay, who was traded to the Red Sox last summer), was one of the few legitimate power threats in the Pirates lineup. He was well-liked on the team and in the community. Clearly, he needed to go. The Braves needed outfield help, and Pirates management felt like the Hernandez, Morton, and Locke offering was a steal. Pirates fans have been down this road before. For these sorts of trades to benefit the Pirates, they need at least two of the three players to turn into quality major league starters. Otherwise, you're just hitting the snooze button on your next winning season. Unfortunately, the Pirates have such a poor scouting department that our 3-for-1 deals generally turn out to be 0.5-for-1 deals at best.

So, what do the Pirates do? Signing Indian "pitchers" probably ain't gonna cut it. And, that brings us to history lesson #2 and one Eddie Gaedel. Eddie's entire major league career consisted of one plate appearance in the 1951 season, during which he walked on four pitches. This was essentially a foregone conclusion, as Eddie was a 3' 7" dwarf and presented a miniscule strike zone to the opposing pitcher. The publicity stunt was designed by St. Louis Browns owner, Bill Veeck, and was staged on the 50th anniversary of the American League. Eddie engaged in a few more promotions for Veeck, but never again appeared in a major league game. And, if you want to read some depressing stuff, be sure to check out the "Later Life" section in Gaedel's wikipedia entry.

Okay, so forget the part about Eddie having a heart attack after getting mugged, and ponder the following question: what if you had a bunch of Eddie Gaedels on your team? Here's what I'm thinking: you have a pitching staff (starters & pen) composed of standard size adult males, along with a standard size catcher, center fielder, shortstop, and first baseman. Everybody else is a little person in a Pirates uniform.

Look, you're gonna bleed runs like, well, like most recent Pirates teams have. Your defensive range at most positions will stink and your pitchers are going to labor like hell to make it to the 7th inning. So, your bullpen would need to change. Keep a closer and a lefty specialist. Everybody else is long relief (cheap arms!), and you might as well carry 12 pitchers just to be safe. That gives you five long relief guys in your pen to deal with the inevitable 14-10 barn burners. Your team ERA will be atrocious, and games will be interminable.

But, man, what an offense. Here's the revamped Bucs lineup I'd like to trot out:

1. Little person, 2B
2. Little person, SS
3. Little person, RF
4. Adrian Gonzalez, 1B
5. Ryan Doumit, C
6. Jimmy Rollins, SS
7. Andrew McCutcheon, CF
8. Little person, LF
9. Pitcher

You've got a lot of pop in the middle of the lineup, and hopefully the little people do a fine job of setting the plate for the big boys. There's reason to believe their on-base percentages will be .600 or higher. They're going to walk more often than not, and after a while, opposing pitchers will just start throwing at them. (If you're going to walk the guy on 4 pitches, why not just drill him with the first? Saves your arm and is much more satisfying.) Since you're carrying 12 pitchers, you've only got 5 bench spots. Sign as many utility guys with good defensive skills as you can, so you can make a bunch of defensive subs late in games in which you hold a lead. Note that since you're only carrying four little people on your roster, you can easily field a conventional-sized team should circumstances dictate it (i.e., one of your starters becomes dominant and can regularly win 2-1 games).

What will it take to assemble this roster? Let's begin by assuming that you can find 4 athletic little people willing to work for the Major League minimum salary ($400k). The Bucs would still need to acquire Gonzalez and Rollins.

Suppose you're Adrian Gonzalez and a GM approaches you and says, "Yo Adrian, how would you like to come to the plate in the first inning with three guys on and no outs, every time? And, oh by the way, the opposing pitcher has already thrown about a dozen pitches and is flustered as hell?" Suppose Kevin Towers is offered Adam LaRoche, Neil Walker, and Daniel Moskos in exchange. Will there be any backlash in San Diego as a result of the trade? Of course not. The weather's great and the women are gorgeous. What's to complain about? So, Towers pulls the trigger on the trade and Adrian is happy to be shipped to Pittsburgh because he's already envisioning a 190 RBI season. Gonzalez makes a very reasonable $3M in '09 and $4.75M in '10 with a club option for $5.5M in '11. Now, we need Jimmy Rollins. We send Jack Wilson, Jarek Cunningham, and Tyler Yates to the Phils in exchange for the declining (but still good) Rollins. Jimmy makes $7.5M this year and next, and $8.5M in '11.

The Bucs keep Andy LaRoche ($413.5k), Nyjer Morgan ($411.5k), Delwyn Young ($406k), Luis Cruz ($401.5k), and Robinson Diaz ($401k) on the bench. (All salaries for '09 season). All other position players (Brandon Moss, Freddy Sanchez, etc.) and most of the bullpen get traded for prospects.

Let's suppose that the Pirates pitching staff stays mostly intact, with the exception of the revamped bullpen. Here's the pitching staff and their '09 salaries:

Paul Maholm, SP, $2M
Ian Snell, SP, $3M
Zach Duke, SP, $2.2M
Ross Ohlendorf, SP, $0.4135M
Jeff Karstens, SP, $0.4015M

Matt "The Mad Crapper" Capps, closer, $2.3M
John Grabow, lefty specialist, $2.3M
Sean Burnett, long relief, $0.4085M
Warm body, long relief, $0.750M
Warm body, long relief, $0.750M
Warm body, long relief, $0.750M
Warm body, long relief, $0.750M

What's the total damage? The little people set you back $1.6M, the full-size regulars cost roughly $13M (no info. on McCutcheon's salary), the backups cost a tick over $2M, and the price tag on the bullpen is about $6M. Which brings the total player payroll to $22.6M, a number that would make even Kevin McClatchy smile.

Yes, I'm overlooking a ton of things. Would any team really want to pay all of Jack Wilson's $7.25M salary? Of course not. The Bucs would need to eat some portion of that. (But, really, if the thing that most upsets you about this post is the financial implications of some of my trade ideas, you're taking things way too seriously. Fix yourself a drink. Go find a hooker. Just stop reading.) By the way, all of the salary information in this post came from Cot's Baseball Contracts. Definitely check it out if you're a baseball fan.

With my plan, not only do you get a (hopefully) competitive team on the cheap, just think of all of the promotional possibilities. Hire Gary Coleman to be your color guy. (I swear... I swear on my non-racist grandmother's grave, that's a joke about Gary Coleman's size and not his race. What, did you want me to make a joke about the Rice twins,
may John Rice rest in peace?) Instead of bobbleheads, you could give away life-size versions of actual players. And what heartless bastard wouldn't be rooting for the little people? Who doesn't like an underdog, especially one that's smaller than the average dog?

The best part of this scheme is that it helps the Pirates in the two areas they struggle most: talent identification/development and payroll. The organization can save money for a few years so they can go after B-level free agents rather than the C/D stuff they've been chasing for the past decade. They have time to develop the few prospects in their system, and when they do miraculously develop a decent player (Nate McLouth, for instance), they can more safely engage in those 3-for-1 deals because they have fewer non-little-people positions to worry about.

Make no mistake. This is not a long-term solution. Nor is it a solution that will lead to a championship. What it might lead to is a fun-to-watch team that has a chance to flirt with .500 and set a new record for highest team ERA over a season. The current system is unsustainable. We don't have the talent to be competitive now, and we don't have the talent in the pipeline to be competitive in the next 2 years. We don't have management that's willing to bump the payroll to $80M. And, we don't have the trading chips to stockpile a bunch of minor league talent. Something radical is required, and it's not the swap of Nate McLouth for some guy named Gorkys. The Pirates can't seem to win, let alone win big. Perhaps they should try to win small instead.

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